What will be the flu epidemic in Russia?
The Institute of Influenza of the Ministry of Health of Russia gives a forecast for the forthcoming seasonal morbidity. Experts believe that the next epidemic will be moderate. In doing so, they are based on data from the Southern Hemisphere, where the flu epidemic has already passed. In Russia, the onset of the incidence is expected to be in December-January.
As for its strength, it will be moderate. An insignificant effect of the epidemic is attributed to the fact that no new mutations of viruses have been identified that would have had a marked aggression.
In the forthcoming influenza epidemic, the main strains will be H1N1, H3N2 and B. At the same time, the viruses of strain B will be somewhat larger compared to previous periods of incidence. Such a conclusion experts make on the basis of data from countries where the cold season is already ending. Known to all, H1N1 will also be present in the upcoming epidemic, but significant activity, which was noted in 2009, will not have. To this pandemic strain, a large number of the population formed immunity, accompanied by a high level of antibodies. Therefore, the incidence of influenza is precisely these strains is not expected.
Last year, a sharp mutation of the strain H3N2 was noted, but this time the specialists do not expect it to recur. In the past season, a significant increase in the incidence and severe epidemic was noted because this strain was absent in the vaccines that were most widely used in Russia. In this case, the vaccination can not provide complete protection against the flu. This year, the infection of H3N2 strains can not be ruled out, but it will be less pronounced in strength.
In the influenza research institute, the situation is monitored on the basis of data obtained from 59 Russian cities. So far there have been only isolated cases of morbidity. However, specialists are not limited to these data, but monitor the epidemiological situation around the world.
In addition to influenza, specialists of the SRI estimate the situation, which develops according to the incidence of ARVI.There is a marked increase in morbidity, which coincided with the beginning of the school year. For example, in Siberia there is an excess of the epidemic threshold of the incidence of ARVI by almost 20% among children under the age of 6 years. Such figures are explained by the high circulation of rhinoviruses and adenoviruses in children's groups.
The flu and ARVI have their own peculiarities of spreading. If the incidence of ARVI is more regional and local, the flu spreads much faster and can capture several countries at once. Also, these diseases differ in the danger they represent. For children( especially the younger age group), ARVI is more dangerous, and for adults - influenza.
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